For the uninitiated: In the late nineties and early part of the oughts, I annually hosted a lavish party for the Academy Awards, the centerpiece of which was a contest to predict the winners (I know; this is not terribly original, but it was fun). I traditionally have been quite accurate at picking winner and routinely scored in the 90% range (I have never had a perfect score) for both nominations and winners.
The arrival of Raymond and our subsequent relocation to the west coast combined to put an end to the festivities (honestly, who can party at 5:00 pm, which is when the show starts out here?), and over the last couple years, the allure of the show has faded at Chez Jim.
Last year, the Oscar nomination announcements sneaked up on me and I missed making predictions. The same thing would have happened this year had I not chanced upon a mention that Jon Stewart will be the host again (yeah!) if the ceremony isn’t canceled by the writers’ strike (boo!). The nominations will be announced tomorrow at 5:30 am.
Two years ago, I predicted an astonishing 86.7% of the major category nominations (see And the Nominees Are...) but then tanked miserably on the awards themselves scoring just a hair over 62% (see Oscar's Golden Sword Cuts Deep).
The first part of 2007 was, for me, the “lost quarter” as I was teaching a class at the UW that seriously kicked my butt time-wise. As I mentioned, I skipped predictions for the nominations, but I managed to issue some half-hearted ones for the awards themselves, and I wasn’t too surprised by another lackluster two-for-three showing for my minimal efforts (see The Sixty-Six Per Cent Solution).
Once again, despite having a Master’s Degree in Movies™, I find myself having seen very few of the likely nominations. Of the movies I saw this year, I predict only Juno and No Country for Old Men will be listed tomorrow. However, predicting an Oscar is only partially about the actual film or performance or costume or whatever. What’s critical is the buzz.
So, relying almost solely on the opinions of others, here are my predictions for the major categories of the 2008 Oscar nominations (I’ll tackle award winners later).
(In decreasing order of certainty)
Best Picture
- There Will Be Blood
- No Country for Old Men
- Atonement
- Juno
- Michael Clayton
Best Actor
- George Clooney, Michael Clayton
- Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
- Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
- Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
- James McAvoy, Atonement
Best Actress
- Julie Christie, Away from Her
- Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
- Keira Knightley, Atonement
- Ellen Page, Juno
- Amy Adams, Enchanted
Best Supporting Actor
- Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
- Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James…
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
- Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
- Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Best Supporting Actress
- Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
- Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
- Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
- Saoirise Ronan, Atonement
- Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Best Director
- Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
- Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
- Joe Wright, Atonement
- Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
- Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Be sure to check back later on Tuesday to see how I did!
