In Moneyball, Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane reported that he doesn’t like recruiting high school pitchers. In a chat session with readers of Baseball Prospectus, he explains:
We also try and minimize economic and health risk by drafting college pitchers. We also feel that because they are older and more experienced, college pitchers have a tendency to give you better early results when they enter the Major Leagues.Understanding that, compare Mariner’s rookie phenom Felix Hernandez’s stats with those of the Detroit Tigers’ rookie phenom Justin Verlander.
Verlander
| G | IP | H | R | HR | BB | SO | W | L | Sv | P/GS | WHIP | BAA | ERA |
| 18 | 117.2 | 99 | 39 | 11 | 35 | 75 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 98.7 | 1.14 | .232 | 2.83 |
Hernandez
| G | IP | H | R | HR | BB | SO | W | L | Sv | P/GS | WHIP | BAA | ERA |
| 18 | 110.1 | 120 | 68 | 15 | 34 | 102 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 99.8 | 1.40 | .275 | 4.89 |
Guess which one played college ball?
Verlander and the Tigers take on the Oakland A’s tonight. The Tigers scored a huge 2-1 series victory over the White Sox this week to take a 5-1/2 game lead in the AL Central for the first time this year. The A’s are #1 in the comparatively weaker AL West, and they are formidable opponent. The Tigers need to leverage their home field advantage in this weekend series as they begin a 10-day road trip on Monday. The Sox are lining up against a couple decent teams — the Texas Rangers and surging Minnesota Twins — at home. They have been struggling since the All-Start break, so there’s a good chance for the Tigers to gain some ground over the next week.
Comments
I thought there's some dispute among statistical experts on that college pitcher point, over the long run. Though maybe it works for Beane, insofar as he can get a few good years out of the pitcher before letting him go in the free agent market.
I think your bigger worry about Hernandez is another documented phenomenon, in which pitchers who rack of several hundred ML innings before age 24 tend to get dead arms by age 30 or so. Compare the career trajectories of, say Dwight Gooden and Fernando Valenzuela (800-1000 innings by age 24) with Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan (300-400 innings by 24).
Posted by: oscar madison | July 25, 2006 7:40 AM