The Tigers still have the best record in baseball, but lately things have been looking pretty shaky. Following their 15-1 stint starting in mid-May, they dropped nine of the next twelve games.
In reviewing the season so far, the Tigers could be said to have benefited from a schedule befitting their previous four terrible seasons. Their string of victories and strongest performances have come largely against demonstrably weaker teams: Kansas City, Cleveland, Minnesota, Seattle. They started to get into trouble against New York, Boston, and Chicago — teams with worse records, but teams who had tougher schedules thus far and who have several recent championships scattered amongst them.
The Tigers struggled against Tampa Bay last night (Tampa Bay!) getting two runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie before winning in the 13th. The Tigers cannot afford to lose against a last place team, nor to tire out their top-ranked pitching staff by dragging such games into extra innings. A sweep of Tampa Bay is required.
Following this series, then, is a long journey into interleague play against National League underperformers such as the Cubs, Astros, Brewers, and Pirates. Only St. Louis presents a major challenge and should be a tough series. The Tigers’ closest competitors, the White Sox, have a similar schedule in the coming weeks and can be expected to perform about as well as the Tigers do.
The Tigers’ true mettle will be determined by how they do in the crucial next month before the All Star Break. In my opinion, they have to play .750 ball against these upcoming weaker teams. They need to maintain, and perhaps extend, the distance between themselves and the White Sox. The final series of the first half for the Tigers is against the weaker Mariners whereas the White Sox face the stronger Red Sox. Even if the two teams perform equally for the next few weeks, that series should give the Tigers an opportunity to pull 4-5 games ahead of the White Sox before the break.
If they don’t do that, I have low hopes for them in the second half.
